Hichilema courts Muchinga, predicts bigger 2026 vote

MPIKA — President Hakainde Hichilema's 14 July swing through Muchinga Province represents a bid to overturn a region that handed his UPND no parliamentary seat in 2021.

The visit took the president to Lavushimanda, Mpika and Kanchibiya, with the president also received in Chinsali and Nakonde on the wider provincial tour, four weeks before Zambians vote on 13 August. Muchinga is one of the few provinces where the UPND remains weak, and Hichilema courts its voters with a single argument: that four years of roads, clinics and free schooling have changed how the province sees the governing party. The Muchinga leg follows recent UPND rallies on the Copperbelt and in North-Western Province, part of a national tour before polling day.

Hichilema predicts a bigger vote

Addressing crowds across Muchinga, Hichilema said the province had given the UPND fewer votes in 2021 because residents were misled by falsehoods about the party and the UPND leader, and predicts a far stronger result this time. The president told supporters that Muchinga voters now knew the governing party after four years of development delivery, and that a bigger vote on 13 August would let the government continue its programme. According to the Zambia News and Information Services (ZANIS), the state news agency, Hichilema urged Muchinga to elect UPND candidates from the presidency down to the council.

A province the UPND lost in 2021

Muchinga has long been opposition territory. Carved out of Northern Province in 2011, the region became a stronghold of the former ruling Patriotic Front, and in the 2021 general election the UPND won no parliamentary seat there. Hichilema's national victory that year rested on other provinces. Turning Muchinga, even partly, would widen the president's margin under Zambia's 50-percent-plus-one rule, which requires the winner to take more than half of all valid votes cast or face a second-round run-off. The province's political history is why the size of the 14 July crowds carried a message well beyond the rally grounds.

Roads, health and an end to 'market cadreism'

The president's pledges in Muchinga tracked the UPND's national script. Hichilema promised expanded Constituency Development Fund allocations, safe drinking water to cut waterborne disease, rural health posts with dedicated maternity wings to lower maternal mortality, grid and off-grid electricity for homes and businesses, wider mobile-phone coverage, and new and rehabilitated roads, including feeder roads into farming areas. In Mpika, the president said the party's flagship free-education policy could not be reversed by a future government because the policy had been written into law.

Free education will continue because it is now Law.

— Hakainde Hichilema, <a href="https://zambianobserver.com/hh-stumps-muchinga-rallies-massive-crowds-in-mpika-lavushimanda-and-kanchibiya-promising-permanent-end-to-market-cadreism/">Mpika, 14 July 2026</a>

Hichilema also returned to a theme that has defined the UPND's appeal to traders. The president promised an end to the political cadres who once controlled bus ranks and market stalls and, the president said, harassed women vendors — a practice the UPND has campaigned against since taking office in 2021.

No more violence. No more cadres harassing women in markets.

— Hakainde Hichilema, <a href="https://zambianobserver.com/hh-stumps-muchinga-rallies-massive-crowds-in-mpika-lavushimanda-and-kanchibiya-promising-permanent-end-to-market-cadreism/">Mpika, Muchinga Province, 14 July 2026</a>

In Kanchibiya, Hichilema thanked residents for the turnout and asked the district to protect the gains of the first term at the ballot, saying a vote for the UPND would help build, in the president's words, "a stronger and better Kanchibiya" (The Zambian Observer).

The national swing

The Muchinga rallies formed one leg of a countrywide tour that has taken Hichilema from the Copperbelt to North-Western Province in recent weeks. State House has cast the campaign as a case for continuity, and the president launched the re-election bid in late June. On the North-Western leg, documented by State House, Hichilema made a near-identical pitch on roads, schooling and clinics.

The economic record on the ballot

Zambia's 13 August election will test the president's economic record. According to CNBC Africa, inflation eased to 6.5 percent in June, the lowest reading in more than eight years; the government projects growth of 4.3 percent in 2026, up from 3.8 percent in 2025; and foreign reserves stand at about 6.5 billion US dollars. Hichilema inherited a country in sovereign-debt default in 2021, and the recovery has leaned on debt restructuring and firm copper prices in Africa's second-largest copper producer, CNBC Africa reported.

The opposition rejects the record. Brian Mundubile, the 55-year-old lawyer who unified rival parties into a single challenge and now leads the Tonse-PF Pamodzi Alliance, has questioned whether the headline figures reach ordinary households in provinces such as Muchinga.

How can you boast that you have built $6.5 billion in foreign reserves when your people are going hungry?

— Brian Mundubile, <a href="https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2026/zambia-election-will-put-hichilemas-economic-record-to-the-test">quoted by CNBC Africa, 9 July 2026</a>

Opposition figures have also accused the government of restricting campaigning, pointing to a 2025 cyber-crimes law and December constitutional changes that expanded parliament, according to CNBC Africa. With rival parties consolidated behind a single candidate, the contest is increasingly read as a two-horse race between the president and Mr Mundubile.

Background

Muchinga Province, with its capital at Chinsali, has ten districts and a political identity shaped by the former ruling Patriotic Front. The UPND's weakness there in 2021 left the governing party without a single Muchinga seat in the National Assembly, making the province a natural target once campaigning opened. At a Chinsali reception, ZANIS reported, the president met newly recruited nurses and students from Kapasa Makasa University. Fourteen candidates filed for the presidency this year; the field and the rules appear in the Kwacha News guide to the 14 candidates and the rules.

What to watch

The next test is turnout on 13 August. Should Muchinga deliver even a share of its vote to the UPND, the president's national margin widens and the 50-percent-plus-one threshold becomes easier to clear in a single round. A weak Muchinga result would sharpen the opposition's argument that the development message has not reached former strongholds. Coverage of the wider contest continues on the Kwacha News Zambian politics desk as the campaign enters its final weeks.

Sources

This report draws on the Zambia News and Information Services (ZANIS) account of the president's Muchinga message; The Zambian Observer on the 14 July rallies in Mpika, Lavushimanda and Kanchibiya; CNBC Africa on the economic backdrop and the opposition challenge; and State House for the wider national swing.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Hichilema's message to Muchinga Province?

In short, the president's message is that development has earned the UPND a bigger vote. According to ZANIS, Hichilema urged Muchinga to elect UPND candidates from the presidency to the council so that free education and Constituency Development Fund projects would continue.

Why is Muchinga important to the UPND in 2026?

Simply put, Muchinga is a gap the UPND is trying to close. The record shows the party won no parliamentary seat in the province in 2021, so any gain on 13 August widens the president's national margin under the 50-percent-plus-one rule.

Who is challenging Hichilema in the 13 August election?

The answer is Brian Mundubile. According to CNBC Africa, the 55-year-old lawyer leads a unified opposition as the Tonse-PF Pamodzi Alliance candidate and has attacked the government's economic figures as detached from daily life.

How does the 50%+1 rule shape the race?

The key is the winning threshold. Analysis of Zambia's constitution shows a presidential candidate must take more than half of all valid votes to avoid a run-off, which is why margins in provinces such as Muchinga matter to both camps.

What are the main pledges Hichilema made in Muchinga?

In other words, more of the same public services. Reporting found the president promised roads and feeder roads, safe water, rural health posts with maternity wings, electricity, wider mobile coverage, a larger Constituency Development Fund and a free-education policy now written into law.