New Congress Party endorses Hichilema as parties realign

LUSAKA — The New Congress Party has endorsed President Hakainde Hichilema for the 13 August election, the latest in a run of small parties that is lining up behind the incumbent.

On its own, an endorsement from a minor party changes little. Read together with the others, the declarations point to a realignment that matters because of the arithmetic of Zambia's presidency: a candidate wins outright only with more than half the vote, or the contest goes to a run-off. Kwacha News set out that maths in its analysis of opposition fragmentation and the fifty-plus-one rule.

The New Congress Party president, Peter Chanda, said the endorsement followed consultations with the party's supporters and members of the public, and a review of the manifestos and policy positions on offer. Chanda said the party had weighed the field and concluded that the governing United Party for National Development (UPND) offered the steadier prospect. The endorsement is a statement of support rather than a merger; the New Congress Party keeps its own name and structures.

It is not the only such declaration. The former Movement for Multi-Party Democracy, restyled as the New Nation Party, has also declared for Hichilema, and the Democratic Party and a bloc of former Patriotic Front councillors moved the same way earlier in the cycle. None of these is a large party. What they share is a calculation that backing the incumbent is the surer route to relevance than splitting the opposition vote further. The president has spent the campaign making retail promises to voters, including a pledge to recruit more than 40,000 health workers.

For the UPND, the value of these endorsements is less about the votes each small party brings than about the signal they send. A steady drip of declarations for the incumbent frames the president as the consolidating choice and the opposition as scattered. For the parties doing the endorsing, the bet is on proximity to a likely winner — a place at the table, a profile to rebuild from — rather than a long-shot run of their own.

The opposition is not standing still. Several established figures are contesting, and the courts are busy with petitions over who may appear on the ballot at all. But the endorsements harden a contrast the governing party wants voters to see: one bloc gathering around the president, the rest divided. In a fifty-plus-one system, that contrast is itself a campaign argument.

Background

Zambia elects its president by an absolute majority. A candidate must take more than 50% of valid votes to win in the first round; fall short, and the top two go to a run-off within 37 days. The rule, introduced with the 2016 Constitution, raises the value of every alliance, because clearing the halfway line is harder than simply finishing first.

That maths is why a crowded opposition field helps an incumbent. When the vote against the government splits across many candidates, none of them reaches the majority needed to force a run-off, and the largest single bloc — usually the governing party — can win on the first ballot. Endorsements that reduce the number of serious challengers, or that visibly gather minor parties around the incumbent, push in the same direction.

Hichilema won the presidency in 2021 on the UPND ticket, ending a decade of Patriotic Front rule. He seeks a second term on 13 August. The campaign has combined policy pledges with the slower work of alliance-building, of which the latest endorsements are a part.

After consulting our supporters and weighing the manifestos on offer, the party has resolved to support President Hichilema for the 13 August election.

— Peter Chanda, president of the New Congress Party, announcing the endorsement

What to watch

The first marker is whether the trickle of endorsements becomes a formal alliance. Analysis of past cycles shows that loose declarations carry less weight than a signed pact with shared candidates and a common platform. Evidence so far points to support without structure; a formal coalition would be a larger move.

The second marker is the opposition's response — whether rival candidates consolidate in turn, or stay divided. Data on the fifty-plus-one rule shows a fragmented opposition favours the incumbent. This story is part of Kwacha News's continuing politics coverage of the contest for 13 August.

Frequently Asked Questions

These are the questions readers have raised about the run of endorsements for President Hichilema. Short answers follow, drawn from the parties' own statements and the rules of Zambia's presidential vote.

What is the New Congress Party endorsement?

In short, the New Congress Party has declared its support for President Hakainde Hichilema in the 13 August election. The answer, simply put, is a public endorsement by a minor party, not a merger. The key is that it adds to a run of small parties backing the incumbent.

Why do small-party endorsements matter?

Research on Zambia's presidential system shows a candidate must win more than half the vote to avoid a run-off. Data from past elections reveals that a divided opposition lets the largest single bloc win outright. In other words, declarations that gather minor parties around the incumbent reinforce that advantage.

Which parties have endorsed Hichilema?

According to their own statements, the New Congress Party, the New Nation Party — the former Movement for Multi-Party Democracy — the Democratic Party and a bloc of former Patriotic Front councillors have all declared for President Hichilema. The answer is that none is a large party. Evidence suggests the value lies in the signal more than the numbers.

What is the fifty-plus-one rule?

The fifty-plus-one rule means a presidential candidate must take more than 50% of valid votes to win in the first round, or face a run-off. Analysis shows the rule, introduced in 2016, raises the value of alliances. The key is that clearing the halfway line is harder than simply finishing first.

Does an endorsement mean a coalition?

Not yet. The endorsements are statements of support, simply put, rather than signed pacts with shared candidates. Data on past cycles shows formal coalitions carry more weight than loose declarations. In other words, the question to watch is whether support hardens into structure before 13 August.

Sources

The endorsement and its reasoning are attributed to the New Congress Party president, Peter Chanda, speaking publicly. Background on the governing party is via the United Party for National Development. The fifty-plus-one presidential rule is set out in the Constitution of Zambia, via the National Assembly of Zambia, and administered by the Electoral Commission of Zambia. Declarations by other parties are attributed to their own public statements.